Publications

Pre-prints

  1. Jia, K.M., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Bilinski, A. & Lipsitch, M. (2025). “Defining and Estimating Outcomes Directly Averted by a Vaccination Program when Rollout Occurs Over Time”. arXiv. DOI: doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.05508. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa6-brands:github"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://github.com/katjia/vax_rollout_impact" target="_blank">repository</a></span>
  
  
  
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  2. <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Field, E., Lehrer, R., Morrison, A., & Piras, C. (2025). “Guy Talk: Catalyzing Peer Effects on IPV through Virtual Support Groups for Men”. Working Paper. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013783.

  3. Zhang, Z., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Lipsitch, M. (2024). “Use of the test-negative design to estimate the protective effect of a scalar immune measure: A simulation analysis”. medRxiv. DOI: doi.org/10.1101/2024.11.22.24317757.

  4. Joshi, K., Kahn, R., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, & Lipsitch, M. (2023). “Some principles for using epidemiologic study results to parameterize transmission models”. medRxiv. DOI: doi.org/10.1101/2023.10.03.23296455.

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Peer-reviewed publications

Methodological

  1. <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Li, K.Q., Shi, X., & Tchetgen Tchetgen, T. J. (2026). “Identification and estimation of vaccine effectiveness in the test-negative design under equi-confounding”. Epidemiology. 37(1), 77-87. DOI: doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001926. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa:pencil"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2504.20360" target="_blank">pre-print</a></span>
  <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa6-brands:github"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://github.com/boyercb/parallel-tnd" target="_blank">repository</a></span>
  
  
  
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  2. Gago, J., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, & Lipsitch, M. (2026). “How should we study the indirect effects of antimicrobial treatment strategies? A causal perspective”. Epidemiology. 37(1), 88-97. DOI: doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001921. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa:pencil"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.03.28.25324855" target="_blank">pre-print</a></span>
  
  
  
  
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  3. <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Dahabreh, I. J., & Steingrimsson, J. A. (2025). “Estimating and evaluating counterfactual prediction models”. Statistics in Medicine. 44(23-24), e70287. DOI: doi.org/10.1002/sim.70287. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa:pencil"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2308.13026" target="_blank">pre-print</a></span>
  <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa6-brands:github"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://github.com/boyercb/validating-counterfactual-predictions" target="_blank">repository</a></span>
  
  
  
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  4. Voter, S. C., Dahabreh, I. J., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Rahbar, H., Kontos, D., & Steingrimsson, J. A. (2025). “Counterfactual prediction from machine learning models: transportability and joint analysis for model development and evaluation using multi-source data”. Diagnostic and Prognostic Research. 9(22). DOI: doi.org/10.1186/s41512-025-00201-y. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa6-brands:github"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://github.com/sarah-voter/counterfactual_prediction_machine_learning_paper_code" target="_blank">repository</a></span>
  
  
  
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  5. Jia, K. M., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Wallinga, J., & Lipsitch, M. (2025). “Causal Estimands for Analyses of Averted and Avertible Outcomes due to Infectious Disease Interventions”. Epidemiology. 36(3), 363-373. DOI: doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001839. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa:pencil"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.21268585v2" target="_blank">pre-print</a></span>
  <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa6-brands:github"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://github.com/katjia/impact_estimands" target="_blank">repository</a></span>
  
  
  
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  6. <strong>Boyer, C.</strong> & Lipsitch, M. (2025). “Emulating target trials of postexposure vaccines using observational data”. American Journal of Epidemiology. 194(7), 2037-2046. DOI: doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwae350. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa:pencil"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.21268585v2" target="_blank">pre-print</a></span>
  
  
  
  
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  7. <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Rumpler, E., Kissler, S. M., & Lipsitch, M. (2022). “Infectious disease dynamics and restrictions on social gathering size”. Epidemics. 40, 100620. DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100620. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa:pencil"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.21268585v2" target="_blank">pre-print</a></span>
  <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa6-brands:github"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://github.com/boyercb/covid-gathering-size" target="_blank">repository</a></span>
  
  
  
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Randomized Trials

  1. <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Paluck, E. L., Annan, J., Nevatia, T., Cooper, J., Namubiru, J, Heise, L., & Lehrer, R. (2022). “Religious leaders can motivate men to cede power and reduce intimate partner violence: experimental evidence from Uganda”. PNAS. 119(31), e2200262119. DOI: doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200262119. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa6-brands:github"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/9TEAIV" target="_blank">repository</a></span>
  
  
  <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="carbon:plan"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3994/history/43131" target="_blank">pre-analysis plan</a></span>
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  2. Pinchoff, J., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Nag Chowdhuri, R., Smith, G., Chintu, N., & Ngo, T. D. (2019). “The evaluation of the Womans Condom marketing approach: What value did peer-led interpersonal communication add to the promotion of a new female condom in urban Lusaka?”. Plos one. 14(12), e0225832. DOI: doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225832.

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Applied/Collaborative

  1. Gasoyan, H., Butsch, W. S., Schulte, R., Casacchia, N. J., Le, P., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, … & Rothberg, M. B. (2025). “Changes in weight and glycemic control following obesity treatment with semaglutide or tirzepatide by discontinuation status”. Obesity. 33(9), 1657-1667. DOI: doi.org/10.1002/oby.24331.

  2. Rosen, J. B., Arciuolo, R. J., Pathela, P., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Baumgartner, J., Latash, J., Malec, L., Lee, E. H., Reddy, V., King, R., Edward Real, J., Lipsitch, M., & Zucker, J. R. (2024). “JYNNEOS™ effectiveness as post-exposure prophylaxis against mpox: Challenges using real-world outbreak data”. Vaccine. 42(3), 548-555. DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.12.066. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa-regular:file-pdf"></iconify-icon> <a href="files/Rosen%20et%20al.%20-%202024%20-%20JYNNEOS%E2%84%A2%20effectiveness%20as%20post-exposure%20prophylaxi.pdf" target="_blank">pdf</a></span>
  
  
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  3. Chatterji, S., <strong>Boyer, C.</strong>, Sharma, V., Abramsky, T., Levtov, R., Doyle, K., Harvey, S., & Heise, L. (2023). “Optimizing the Construction of Outcome Measures for Impact Evaluations of Intimate Partner Violence Prevention Interventions”. Journal of Interpersonal Violence. 38(15-16), 9105-9131. DOI: doi.org/10.1177/08862605231162887. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa:pencil"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.02.07.23285510.abstract" target="_blank">pre-print</a></span>
  
  
  
  
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  4. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). (2021). “Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants”. The Lancet. 398(10304), 957-980. DOI: doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01330-1. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa-regular:file-pdf"></iconify-icon> <a href="files/Zhou%20et%20al.%20-%202021%20-%20Worldwide%20trends%20in%20hypertension%20prevalence%20and%20pr.pdf" target="_blank">pdf</a></span>
  
  
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Dissertation

  1. <strong>Boyer, C.</strong> (2023). “New approaches to factual and counterfactual prediction modeling”. Doctoral dissertation, Harvard University Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. 

      <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="fa-regular:file-pdf"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/37374603/thesis.pdf" target="_blank">pdf</a></span>
  <span style="margin-right: 10px;"><iconify-icon inline icon="file-icons:keynote"></iconify-icon> <a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/37374603/thesis.pdf">slides</a></span>
  
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